It was said in the annual World Energy Outlook 2017 of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) on Tuesday that the growth in oil and gas production in the United States over the next eight years would be unprecedented in the history of the world hydrocarbon market, newsru.com reports.
One of the reasons is the improvement of technologies and the reduction of production costs. The other is that the amount of recoverable oil reserves in the US is greater than expected. Compared to last year, the estimate has been raised by a third - up to 105 billion barrels, but it is also not final and, as suggested by the IEA experts, can be doubled.
From the forecast of the IEA it follows that at the expense of a new round of the slate revolution, by 2025 the States will produce 16.9 million barrels per day of both crude oil and gas condensate. Thus, compared to 2010, production in the US will increase more than double, or of 8 million barrels per day.
In terms of growth, the growth in American oil production will equal that achieved by Saudi Arabia at the height of its expansion, the Prime Agency reports.
Accordingly, by the beginning of the 2020s, the US will export more oil than it purchases abroad, and the US oil boom "will be the largest steady increase in oil production within a single country in the history of the market," the IEA said in its report. In these conditions, oil prices "will remain low for a long time," the Agency warns.
The IEA decreased the price per barrel long-term forecast by 18% - from almost 97 to 83 dollars in 2025. Considering inflation (2% on average per year, according to the FED target), it amounts to $ 72 at current prices.
At the same time, the Agency notes that a "conservative scenario" is possible, in which oil in nominal prices will cost only $ 70 per barrel up to 2040. In real terms (taking into account dollar inflation), this corresponds to a level of $ 35 at current prices.